Fearless 2023 IndyCar Predictions

 Welcome to the 2023 NTT IndyCar Series season!

Finally, after thousands of long, lonely days without racing, the series is finally ready to get it on this weekend on the streets of St. Pete.

(Editor's note: It has actually only been 173 days since the last day of the 2022 season, but my sentence makes it a little more dramatic, don't you think?)

I am so excited to be covering the series for Frontstretch, and will be on-site at several races over the course of the summer. Most of my work will go there, but sometimes you need to make musings or write freely without the corporate overlords looking over your shoulder, so expect to see the more fun-type of writing appear in this space, as it has for more than 12 years.

Wow, 12 years! Thanks to everyone who is still with me after all of this time. It's crazy to think it's been that long, and even crazier to think that there just aren't a lot of true bloggers left. 

Anyway, it's prediction time, so here are a few thoughts about what I envision seeing over the course of the 2023 season. And of course, since I am a credentialed member of IndyCar media, they will be completely objective and without any bias whatsoever.

Yeah, right. You guys know me better than that! It's my blog! That's what it's here for!

Anyway, on with the predictions.

2023 IndyCar Champion -- Alex Palou. This year could, quite simply, be the most wide-open championship fight that this series has ever seen. I legit think that there are close to 10 drivers who, if everything goes right, can be holding the Astor Cup in September. And "things going right" will be the key because with the depth of the field, I don't see anybody piling up a lot of wins, it's going to take a consistent, Will Power-type season to get it done. Except for a couple of hiccups, that's what Palou did en route to the 2021 championship, and to have gone through everything he did last year and still kept it together win the final race of the season and finish fifth in points shows that he's a monster. I still think he is one of the three-best drivers in the paddock, and is only getting better.

With hindsight from what happened last year in mind, here's another prediction: Palou stays at Ganassi in 2024 and beyond. Chip Ganassi is a pretty sharp guy, and I don't think he fought the way he did solely to force Palou into honoring the last year of his contract. If he truly had an issue with Alex or his performance, he simply would've let him walk. This was about keeping a generational talent on his team, especially with another generational talent approaching the end of his career. Ganassi has lawyers, he knows the wording on the McLaren contract, and I think in the end it's gonna work out in his favorite.

2023 Indianapolis 500 winner -- Tony Kanaan. Come on, do you really think I'd pick anyone else? I'm still a shade skeptical as to whether or not this year will really be TK's last run at the Brickyard, but if it is, I'd like to see him go out putting his "ugly mug" on the Borg-Warner Trophy once again. If this is the end, I'm happy for him, but I'm a little sad as well as we will be watching the end of the career of one of IndyCar's great drivers, not to mention one of it's most popular ones.

If his 2013 win was anything, it proved that TK is The People's Racer. It's kind of like Rocky in a way, he just had a way of bringing us in every time he strapped into a car. It's about his passion and charisma, and how he made us feel, like we were in the car with him. Few drivers have had the highs and lows at Indy as TK has, and I think that's what made him such a massive figure to a lot of us. I don't know if it is possible for people to "will" someone to a win, but if it an actual thing, TK will have a lot of "will" behind him in May.

Rookie of the Year -- Sting Ray Robb. Originally I had Marcus Armstrong here, then, whoops, realized he wasn't doing the ovals this year, so Robb is our guy. Robb has been a champion in the Road to Indy ladder series, winning the Indy Pro 2000 title in 2019, and last year was the runner-up while in the IndyNXT series. Despite being just 21, Robb has gained plenty of experience in the ladder system, having run 95 races since 2017, and his knowledge of the tracks will be a big advantage for him. I think down the road Benjamin Pedersen will emerge as the best driver out of this class, as I have been impressed with watching him in person in US F4 and F3 Americas competition, and he has six top 5 points finishes in various American open wheel series over  the years. But the fact is, driving for A.J. Foyt Racing this year won't give him a chance to really showcase his talents. 

First First-Time Winner -- Kyle Kirkwood. Like the great DJ Khalid says, all Kirkwood does is win, win, win. While he didn't perform as well as I thought he might in his first season in IndyCar in 2022, he got the most important thing: reps and experience. Moving to Andretti Autosport will definitely changes his fortunes, and if early testing is an indication, he's going to get a chance to run up front.

Comeback Driver of the Year -- Colton Herta. Kinda weird, right? But, last year was an absolute disaster for the 22-year-old, with just one win on the season and two podiums. A solid season for most drivers, but Herta also had four finishes of P23 or worse, and came home just 10th in points. A lot of that points to a basic malaise that followed Andretti Autosport around all year, which, just like I mentioned with Kirkwood, looks to have changed this year. The main thing Herta talked about in the pre-season was the fact that the cars came off of the truck slow and they didn't have the time to catch up to the rest of the field. It's pretty simple -- if they fix that, they win.

Driver on the Hot Seat -- Jack Harvey. When Harvey picked up a podium finish for then-tiny Meyer Shank Racing organization on the IMS road course in 2019, it seemed like he was ready for a full-time gig, which came with Rahal Letterman Lanigan Racing in 2020, but in three seasons, he's finished P15, P13 and P22 in points. Last year saw him post just one top 10 and six finishes of P20 or worse. He's 29 now, and with a lot of young drivers waiting to move up to the big leagues, this is his show-me season. 

I'm hitting send now, just in time for practice to begin! I hope you have a great IndyCar season, and I'll see you at the track!

They Did It Again

I've been a sportswriter for more than 20 years, and when I was just getting started I covered a lot of high school sports, including football.

Of course, back at the turn of the century, there were a few "old school" coaches still roaming the sidelines, and I enjoyed speaking to them because while they didn't always say things in the most correct of ways, they were always entertaining and fun to talk to.

One of those was a guy named Mike Curry. He had been coaching since the mid-70s and had won two state football championships in 1981 and 1986. He stepped down from coaching at Aurora Central Catholic High School in 2009 but stayed on to teach social studies -- in fact, both of my sons had him as a teacher while they were at ACC.

After a game, Mike would have you follow him to the equipment barn where he'd light up a smoke and tell you the truth about the game. If they played badly he said they did, and vice versa.

Once after a particularly tough game, I asked him about his team's turnovers that night, and his reply was something along the lines of: "we shot ourselves in the foot so many times tonight that we ran out of bullets".

As a fan of IndyCar for more than 43 years, that quote has come to mind many times over the years, when the series does something that shows that they were unable to get out of their own way...as usual.

This quote resurfaced again last week when the Iowa Speedway weekend schedule was released. It was so glowing! Carrie Underwood, Zac Brown, Kenny Chesney and Ed Sheeran are going to be there! It's going to be even better than last year!

And in the small print? Oh yeah, there will be cars on track. Oh, and another thing, tickets are going to cost more than last year. A lot more.

As expected, there has been a lot of pushback. I know social media represents just a slight piece of the IndyCar fanbase, but from what I've read there leads me to conclude that many people who bought tickets this year will not be returning in 2023.

I truly believe that the 2022 Iowa experiment was a successful one in terms of fans and fans enjoyment, but in the back of my mind I always wondered how they were planning on paying for it. I now have my answer.

Marshall Pruett covered a lot of the bases of this topic, and you can read his piece here. I'm not going to say I disagree with many of the points Bud Denker brings up in their reasoning to move in the direction they are going. But my question are these: how does this grow IndyCar? How does it truly bring in new fans? How does this not feel like a music festival with races as the in-between entertainment?

As a race fan, it feels that way. It reminds me of back in 1998 when I went to a Cincinnati Reds game on Beanie Baby Day. A large segment of fans waited in line to get their Beanie Baby, handed over their ticket, got their Baby, then turned around and walked out. They got what they came for, just like people who pay to get into a movie, watch a trailer for a future blockbuster, and leave.

For what they are bringing in, yeah, the cost is a bargain. However, that's not IndyCar's niche. It's always been about great racing for a low price, kids getting in free and some of the best access to the people who make the sport great.

That's what most of us want! Put it one way: I love EDM (Electronic Dance Music) and so do both of my sons. During the Indy 500, some of the biggest names in the genre play during the race in the Snake Pit. I listen to the replays on our way home the next on Sirius XM, and they are incredible shows. 

Combined minutes myself and my two sons have spent in the Snake Pit to see these great acts: Zero.

We aren't there to see EDM acts, we're there to see the Indy 500. I don't begrudge anyone who feels the other way around, either. As much as I love football, if I were to go to a city during the Super Bowl and they were having a huge EDM show during the game, the show would be my choice instead of the game.

But the Indy 500 doesn't make very many people EDM fans, and EDM fans rarely become fans of the Indy 500. In the end they are two standalone events. And that's OK, because the race is the star of the show, everyone knows it, and because of that fact both can coexist peacefully.

I think what they are doing to make Iowa a big deal is nice, but at the same time I find it an insult to race fans, and IndyCar fans who have been loyal to the series. With no massive media, content, and money resources like NASCAR, this series has to be about the fans, and they should be the main piece to every decision.

Some may argue that maybe some of these people will come to the track and become race fans. Sure, but what is the rate of return on that? I've seen soccer games in Europe, they are amazing and a lot of fun. When I return to Italy next year I'm probably going to go to a couple more. But at the same time, I have a Major League Soccer team that plays an hour from my house and I have never gone to a game.

Honestly, I just have no real desire to.

Sure, the people who come to the concert may enjoy the race, and may come back in 2024. But how does that help the series? How does it help sell tickets, get TV ratings and sell merchandise? I feel like the weekend will help make more new fans of the musical acts rather than the other way around.

If this were the goal of every race weekend, as the great Ragin' Cajun' himself James Carville said in the movie Old School: "Have at it, hoss", I'd get it. But when it's cheaper overall to go to other races, where do you think people are going to go? When airfare, hotel and race tickets are cheaper to go to sunny St. Pete in the wintertime than the Iowa green desert in the summer, what's gonna be the choice?

If this were being done in Long Beach, St. Pete or Nashville, it would be killer. It would be the perfect combination of racing and music, something I would buy into in a heartbeat, because I'd come to town a day earlier or a day later and enjoy the local scene. It would be worth it to me.

But putting on concerts and saying: "hey, stick around for the IndyCar race!" just doesn't sit with me.

I've been beating on this drum and I'll beat on it until the head breaks. Then I'll put on a new drum head and beat onto it some more: this isn't it.

To grow the sport you need access, and you need to appeal to younger fans. It's gotta be done through social media, eSports, access and content. It's gotta be an aggressive approach from the top to the bottom, from the series to the teams to the drivers, and it's gotta be done with everyone getting on board. And if you aren't on board, someone will get on board for you.

My wife works for a company that makes restaurant and residential cooking equipment, and they have the belief that the company needs to be re-invented every several years. So they do it. It's time for IndyCar to re-invent itself, and that's been needed for quite some time.

Every IndyCar-related activity should be open to the public, or somehow get the public involved. Everything needs to be streamed, and every decision needs to be made for what is best for racing fans. Because in the end, your product is racing, and your most important people need to be your fans. 

Make everything big, then make it bigger. Did you ever see the movie The One Hundred Foot Journey? It's a total chick flick, but I like it, so shaddup. In the movie, when the Indian family opens their restaurant, no one comes in. But when they add lights and music, and the father dresses up in traditional Indian wear, makes his restaurant seem like a big deal, and stands outside coaxing people in, they discover that they love the place, and its popularity reaches or even exceeds the stuffy, Michelin Star establishment across the street.

Which says something. I've eaten food prepared by a Michelin Star chef...it's so good it's mind boggling.

Papa knew what he had inside was amazing, he just needed to get people inside to try his food. He didn't need Bollywood stars, or Yo Yo Honey Sing, Benny Dayal or Arijit Singh to be there, because they weren't the star of the show, his food was. That's even hammered home with Hassan's story arc, going to Paris and becoming a big star, then coming home because he wanted it to be about the food.

In the end, IndyCar is about the racing. The racing should be the star of every weekend, not a sideshow. I'm all for doing what it takes to get racing fans new and old through the gates, but not like this.

Ovals, Ovals, and More Ovals

For as long as I can remember, IndyCar fans have clamored to have more ovals on the schedule.

Hey, I'm for it too, so don't look at this post as a dive into Negativetown.

But this conversation comes up a lot, and here's what usually happens: 

1) Everyone wants ovals.

2) IndyCar puts an oval on the schedule.

3) Nobody goes to said oval, TV ratings are bad.

4) Said oval falls off the schedule.

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

It's obvious that Roger Penske wants more ovals on the schedule, because it is written about often, including this piece from motorsport.com yesterday. But the question(s) that also need to be asked include: How is that going to be done? and...What are we going to do differently this time? And perhaps a third great question: What is a viable oval that will become a great partner with IndyCar?

The last point is the most important. Right now IndyCar has what it spent years looking for, and that is date equity with great tracks and great partners. Just adding a track for the sake of doing so won't work, because the needs of the consumer are different than what they were years ago.

It's not just about the race anymore. People want (and expect) more from their experience than just one race. Gas, hotels, race tickets -- they all cost money, and that cost is rising exponentially faster than how people are making it. They want more for their dollar.

Natural road courses have found their niche. People go to those races because they can camp and enjoy a weekend that offers plenty of action on the track in a laid-back atmosphere where people can go watch the action anywhere on the property. 

Street courses have found theirs, too. Just like road courses, there is plenty of action on track with several different series and types of cars participating. You can wander around the course, and when everything is done you can head out to bars and restaurants with your friends and continue the celebration.

What do ovals offer? Most are out in the middle of nowhere, so you drive to the track, watch the cars go around, and go back to your hotel and watch TV. Sure, those tracks offer camping too, but it doesn't seem as popular as it is in different venues.

Ovals seem to be more for the die-hard fans, and the rest are for both the die-hards and the people who have fun when the circus comes to town once a year. Because IndyCar is a business, they have to accommodate both groups.

Lord knows they have tried. I went to the Milwaukee race the last few times it was held, and Michael Andretti did his best, and probably lost a lot of money in the process. So did Pocono, but honestly, until they get serious about some of the safety issues they have, there's no good reason to go back.

Did Iowa Speedway find the holy grail last summer? It seemed like it, with plenty of activities and sponsor activation from HyVee, the weekend was a rousing success. It also probably cost a ton of money, which if HyVee is willing to write it all off that's fine, but what other partner is willing to do the same? So far, none have stepped forward to make that commitment, although WWT Raceway is a great IndyCar partner and I have no problem with how they do their thing.

Not to mention that adding races adds costs to the teams. I don't know the exact costs to put a car on track per race, but I'm going to guess it's well into six figures. Adding events means more money needs to come from sponsors, and more possible expenses to the team, especially on ovals when crash damage can become very expensive. 

This isn't the days of alcohol and tobacco sponsorships, when money flowed from the spigots like cold, hard, green water. Back then, all of that could be covered with no problem. And yeah, for the big teams, that money can come from somewhere. But the big teams don't even cover half of the grid, what about everyone else?

Of course, everyone would find it, because racers race, and that's how it's done. How that helps the overall viability of the series is something worth the debate.

Look, we have good things right now, which is the first for the IndyCar universe in a long time. More cars are being added to the grid. More people are making an investment into the sport. We have date and venue equity for the first time in a long time. The paddock is full of talented drivers who have a passion for racing and for IndyCar. The series is better off than it has been in a long, long time.

The next step, though, is a big one. Our end is simple: go to the races, and if you don't go, watch it on TV (or Peacock, and quit crying over something that is $5 a month). Buy merch, encourage others to give IndyCar a chance, just be an overall good steward.

For IndyCar? Total rebuild. If we as fans are committed to them, they have to commit to us. Better social media, better online content, better marketing, better merch. Expect more from promoters. I covered the Texas race last year and the promotion and local marketing was awful. If they aren't willing to do that, then self-promote the race and do the hell out of it.

Overall, commit to doing more. As I blogged about last year, a Drive to Survive-type series would be great, but there are more pieces involved. DTS doesn't work without a total buy-in from everyone, including a massive buy-in on social media and a commitment to eSports.

Just thinking "more ovals" like it's 1995 won't work. Just like the apron at IMS, it's gone and it's never coming back. 

I love IndyCar, which is why I do what I do, and why I keep coming back. But a new step needs to be taken. Put it this way: it's Tuesday and social media is still talking about Ross Chastain. And for good reason, I might add.

How often does that happen with IndyCar? It needs to be after every event, because at every race something worth talking about happens. I'm saying this because it needs to be said: it's time for IndyCar to stop expecting the drivers, teams and fans to be the voice of the series. They need to do their part too.

I think the small-but-mighty fanbase has made it clear. We are all-in. Is IndyCar ready to do the same, or are they going to keep having the same discussions, over and over, resulting in the same things, over and over.

Your move, guys.

Herta's Locked In

 To no one's surprise, it was announced that Colton Herta had signed a contract extension with Andretti Autosport.

Probably a big surprise is the length -- it runs through 2027 -- and the price tag, as Marshall Pruett reported that it most likely made the 22-year-old the highest paid driver in IndyCar. By a pretty steep margin it appears. 

Since coming to AA and IndyCar full-time in 2019, Herta has proven to be the real deal. In four seasons he already has seven wins and 11 podiums as he has finished as high as third in the season standings. This past season, his only win came on the Indy road course at the beginning of May, but overall had a disappointing campaign as he ended up 10th in points.

In the end, Herta gets what he wants: he's getting paid, has job security, becomes the leader among the drivers in the AA stable (with the departure of Alexander Rossi to Arrow McLaren SP), gets to continue working with his dad, Bryan, and still has a window of opportunity for Formula 1.

I think the final two points I made are the most important. I really think he enjoys working with his dad, and why not? They've had a great amount of success together, and, despite some of their interactions on the radio that gets replayed on TV, they get each other and I think his dad has had a lot to do with the success he's had.

Plus, the F1 thing. Herta has made it clear that racing in F1 is something that is important to him if the opportunity presents itself. Between his tests with McLaren and the ongoing potential of Michael Andretti and his partners securing a F1 team, it is a possibility. And, like Herta says, he's 22...he could go overseas for a few years and could come back and still have a long IndyCar career ahead of him.

Frankly, I don't blame any driver for wanting to test the waters in F1. Love it or hate the idea, F1 is considered worldwide as the pinnacle of the sport. You become a global name, brand and commodity, and lots of financial opportunities come along with that. Think about when you were 22 -- wouldn't that have been crazy appealing?

I mean, it would for me. Hell, I'm 53 and that would appeal to me right now!

Of course, much of the F1 hopes hinge on Herta earning enough points for a Superlicense, as Nathan Brown describes in detail here. The target number is 40 points, and Herta has 32. A great 2023 might give him enough points to make him eligible, but contractually he now can't move to F1 until after the 2025 season.

Plus, the even bigger question: given Andretti Autosport's recent form, can he have enough points when he needs them?

For the record, I hate the Superlicense criteria. I get why it is in place, and I also understand that it is weighted towards F2 and F3 for a reason: to encourage drivers to follow a European ladder system. But the fact that it is difficult to get there through IndyCar is BS. You can say anything you want about F2 and F3, but neither of those series compare to the competition and talent level that exists in IndyCar.

You mean to tell me that winning an F2 title is tougher than beating Scott Dixon, Will Power, Joef Newgarden, Scott McLaughlin, Alex Palou and the rest of the field in IndyCar? Don't come at me with that. As Palou showed in FP1 the USGP in Austin last weekend, IndyCar drivers can run with anyone.

The fact is, Herta is good enough to run in F1. Whether or not he gets that opportunity is where the debate exists.

I'm not unearthing anything amazing by saying this, but in order for that to happen, Andretti Autosport needs to get its stuff figured out. All we've seen from this team over the last couple of years is poor form, bad pitstops and badly prepared cars. I truly believe that Rossi and Herta are two of the, at worst, 20 best open wheel drivers on the planet. But the last three years absolutely were three wasted, and lost, years of Rossi's career. All of the sudden, Rossi is 31, and while he has a lot of career left, it's right now shorter than it once was.

Rossi has had enough, which is why he moved to AMSP, and I think immediately becomes a championship contender again. As of right now, AMSP has replaced AA in the Big 3 in the IndyCar paddock with Penske and Ganassi.

The one thing I think Herta has on his side is his youth. Even if F1 doesn't work out, and even if AA doesn't get its stuff together -- which is highly doubtful -- Herta will only be 27 when this contract ends, leaving him free to move to Penske or Ganassi if the opportunity is there.

While the IndyCar is in great hands for the future with all of the young talent in the series, the fact is that five years from now, it will have a completely different identity. Many of the older drivers will have probably retired, and the young guys will be the faces of the series. Herta will be one of them.

So while on the surface, there are some questions concerning his signing, Herta is exactly where he wants (and needs) to be. 

Ranking The Contenders

In boxing back in the day, the last three rounds of a 15-round fight were called the "championship rounds". Beaten, exhausted and probably questioning why they got into this line of work in the first place, the final rounds where when fighters dug deep within themselves and found the mental toughness to finish the fight.

The bell to the final round has five drivers answering it. They have all reached this point in different ways, but, as always, the IndyCar season always delivers multiple drivers with championship hopes at the end of the season. Wait, how does this always happen? Oh yeah, it's the best racing series on the planet.

So who will be holding the Astor Challenge Cup later on today at Laguna Seca? Let's look at the contenders:

Will Power (503 points): I'm going to admit this straight out that I want to see Power win his second championship. As I argued a few weeks ago, this is the best overall season in his long open wheel career, and it should end that way. Though he has just one win on the year, and has only led 318 of the possible 2173 laps this year, he has been consistent, completing every lap this season while picking up 11 Top 5 finishes. His pole yesterday was the 68th of his career, breaking a tie with Mario Andretti for the most ever, and it also gives him a free run from the start while the other contenders are back in the field.

Josef Newgarden (482 points, 21 points behind): I think Power will be the champion, but Newgarden is the Driver of the Year, with five wins, 7 Top 5 and 11 Top 10 finishes. Most seasons would find him running away with the points, but he's had several bogeys as well, finishing P25 at the Indianapolis 500 and crashing out (not his fault) while leading in Race 2 at Iowa and finishing P24. He's got the biggest hill to climb today, as a spin in qualifying relegates him to the 26th starting position.

Scott Dixon (482, -21): Who's surprised to see Dixon still in the hunt and looking for his seventh IndyCar title? I don't see any hands in the air, so let's continue. His season has been crazy consistent as well, as he has only one finish outside of the Top 10 this year. But that one was a biggie, as it was P21 at the Indy 500, which on a double-points day cost him dearly. What's crazy is that he was the car to beat that day until he was penalized with 25 laps to go for a pit speed violation. He actually scored one more point than Power did that day (33-32), but even a Top 5 finish would've garnered him 37 more points, which would have him in the driver's seat today. Like Newgarden, he has some work starting P13, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him on the podium later this afternoon.

Marcus Ericsson (484, -39): You can argue all you want about double points at the 500, because here's why it matters: in winning his first Indy 500, Ericsson scored a whopping 109 points, which represents 22.5 percent of all the points he scored this year. Other than a P22 finish at Long Beach, his season has been very respectable, but his two podiums and five total Top 5 finishes falls below the marks of the rest of the guys on this list. But hey, when you win the 500, it's been a helluva season.

Scott McLaughlin (482, -41): Amongst the other contenders, McLaughlin has the best look at Power at the start, as he goes off P8 on the grid. He also has the most work to do. In order for McLaughlin to be standing at the final bell, he needs to win the race while the rest of the event goes totally off the rails. Still, what an incredible season: three wins, seven podiums and three pole positions. What cost him was a bad run between the Indy road course and Detroit, where he finished P20, P29 and P19. It was great to see that he was rewarded with a long-term contract from Team Penske as the result of his first two years in the series. Looking at all of the young talent in IndyCar, people have wondered who was going to be the next superstar out of that group. Turns out it's probably going to be a 29-year-old Kiwi who is also the Australian Supercars GOAT. Dude is great, and he's only getting better.

So that's how it lines up today at Laguna Seca. Have a great race everybody!

Winners and Losers -- Gateway Edition

 Wow, was that a weird evening or what?

Saturday night's race at WWT Raceway was like a play with more than a few acts. The first act was a bit boring as the track was still hot and passing was difficult. Then, with rain coming, several drivers went off-sequence, leading to a lot of crazy passes because of different tire degradation due to cars being on different strategies.

Lightning and rain followed with 43 laps to go, which led to some Rain Delay Theater, taking the remainder of the race under the lights were a clean, cool track led to several cars coming alive. And of course, the final 43 laps where while only one pass took place up front, down in the field there was some type of craziness that included one young driver making a charge to the front.

So who were the winners and losers Saturday?

Winners

Josef Newgarden: It was certainly a Penske Party up front as its three drivers led 218 of the 260 laps, with Newgarden leading 78 on his way to a fifth win of the season. He also tightened the championship and is now just three points behind teammate Will Power at the top of the standings with two races left. The win was also the 25th of his career, tying Gordon Johncock on the all-time wins list and putting him within striking distance of Rodger Ward (26), Johnny Rutherford (27) and Rick Mears (29). Pretty impressive when you consider he is in his age 31 season. But how does he compare with the best in IndyCar history after their age 31 seasons? Check this out:

AJ Foyt -- 32 wins

Scott Dixon -- 26

Mario Andretti -- 30

Michael Andretti -- 29

Of course, all of the drivers listed competed under different circumstances. For instance, Mario didn't begin racing in IndyCar until he was 25, and Michael lost a year in Formula 1. But, the numbers are the numbers, and if Newgarden stays with Penske the rest of his career (duh!) he will finish his career in the Top 5 on the wins list. 

David Malukas: No doubt the absolute driver of the day. Malukas won twice last year at Gateway and looked just as comfortable on Saturday night, leading four laps and charging through the field in the final stint, which culminated in a pass on Scott McLaughlin in Turn 2 on the final lap of the race. That pass, using the high line and showing no regard for his own personal safety (kidding, it was an incredible pass) was highlight material. Malukas has certainly raced his way into a better ride next year if he wants it.

Scott McLaughlin: Remember last year when Scotty was pretty much racing in the midfield, and, by his own admission, having confidence issues? I don't either, because in Year 2 he has shown what made Team Penske sign him in the first place. We all knew he was a successful, smart, and clean racer thanks to his massive success in Supercars, but for a while it was a concern that it might not have transferred to open wheel machines. Forget that, he's the real deal, and the only thing that might keep him from a bunch of wins and a title may be his own teammate, who is just as good.

Scott Dixon: Look who's back...back again. While Dixon finished P8 in Saturday's race, he's still third in points and just 14 in arrears of Newgarden. As usual, he's gained momentum as the season has progressed. In his last eight races since the Indianapolis 500, he has two wins, five total Top 5 finishes and has never finished out of the Top 10. This is just what the guy does.

Losers

Will Power: I'm probably being a bit hard on Will, especially the way he dominated the race by leading 128 laps in the early going. But, with his P6 finish he came back to the championship field a little bit, and while he is still the leader -- and my odds-on pick to win the championship -- things are really, really tight as four drivers are within 17 points and anything can happen in the next two races. Power could make it easy on himself and just win the final two races, which he is capable of doing, but at worst he has to podium in both races to grab the Astor Cup.

Alex Palou: His P9 finish probably closed any chance he had to defend his championship, as he sits in fifth and is 43 points behind Power. That's a workable deficit with a little luck, but to win the championship he would need Power, Newgarden, Dixon and Marcus Ericsson to all falter. That's not gonna happen.

Pato O'Ward: A guy finishes P4 and he makes the losers list? Unfortunately, yeah. He really did drive a great race and was solid all night, but he really needed to either win the race to make up some ground. As it stands, he's now 68 points behind and time has pretty much ran out. After his awesome, P2-P1 weekend at Iowa, his P12 at the IMS road course and P24 in Nashville did a ton of damage.

As the season winds down, who ya got for the championship? Follow me on Twitter @15daysinmay and let me know! 

Will Power's Career Year

Yep, I'm saying it.

You're probably asking, "wait a minute? Will Power? The guy with 41 wins, 66 poles, a championship and an Indy 500 win? That Will Power?".

Yep again.

As we head to the final four races of the IndyCar season, Power sits in a familiar spot -- on top of the points standings. And if he keeps doing what he's been doing, I think he will still be sitting there when the checkered flag falls at Laguna Seca in six weeks.

There's no doubt that Power is one of the best drivers of his generation, in fact, if Scott Dixon weren't around he would arguably be the best. He's been dominant since he began racing full-time with Team Penske in 2010, and in his first five years with Penske, he finished, P2, P2, P2 and P4 before finally winning his first (and only) IndyCar title in 2014. In fact, other than last year, when he finished ninth in points, he had never had a season where he finished lower than fifth.

It's some pretty consistent stuff -- at least in the points standings. But many of his most successful seasons featured some brilliant driving, and some stinkers too. 

Take 2011, when he won six times and notched a total of eight podiums. He lost the title, though, mainly because he had three finishes of P19 or worse, to go along with two P14 finishes. Dario Franchitti, on the other hand, only had four wins, and while he had a P20 finish at New Hampshire, he only finished outside of the Top 10 one other time that year. 

The next season was the same, as he won three times and had six podiums. But he lost the championship to Ryan Hunter-Reay by just three points thanks to three finishes of 23rd or worse, including crashing out of the final race at Fontana and finishing 24th. Hunter-Reay won that race, and the title as a result.

I'm not going to go season-by-season, of course, but you get the idea. He's won a race in every season since 2007, and has scored a ton of points along the way. But whether it was mistakes or just plain bad luck, he's missed the one thing that is important: consistent, race-to-race consistency.

Maybe last year's 9th-place finish in points was a motivator, but at age 41 Power is putting up the consistency that he's lacked in previous seasons.

Though he only has one win (Detroit), he has a total of seven podiums, plus three 4th-place finishes. Sure, he has two P15s at the 500 and Toronto, and a P19 at Road America, but the consistency he's shown in the other 10 races has been outstanding as he heads to Nashville with and average finish of 6.1 on the year.

For reference, in his title year of 2014 he had an average finish of 6.4.

It hasn't been easy at times, either. While he is no doubt the greatest qualifier in history, and and three poles this year to give him 66 on his career -- one short of Mario Andretti -- he's also had weekends where things didn't go so well.

At Mid-Ohio, Power started 21st and still came back to finish third. In his win at Detroit he started 16th, and at Barber he started 19th and finished fourth. In all three of those races he passed cars and methodically moved his way up the field.

And, despite only leading 188 laps, which without doing the research I'm guessing is a career low, he's completed all 1,723 laps of competition this year. Power has been smooth and he's been fast, and he's putting together the types of seasons Franchitti did when he was winning four championships in a five-year span.

With four races to go on the schedule, if Power wants to win the title, he has to keep up this kind of consistency, because there is really no room for error. He's just nine points ahead of Marcus Ericsson, and 32 in front of Josef Newgarden, with four other drivers within 81 points.

Power has talked a lot about thinking about the "big picture", and how that has helped him be more patient. If he wants to win his second championship, that and his super consistency is what is going to take him there.