Sunday, April 2, 2023

Three Things: PPG 375 Edition

 Good morning from Texas Motor Speedway!

It's cloudy and a bit windy, but the rain is expected to hold off until after the race finishes, so we seem good to go for the PPG 375. Here are a few things I'm thinking about from the media center.

1) The High Line. As I discussed in my Frontstretch article a few days ago, there was a time when TMS was a two-groove racetrack, which provided plenty of action. But because of the resin solution NASCAR has applied to the second lane to help stock cars get better grip, that second line has gone away and there has been a lot less passing than in previous races. IndyCar has tried to address the situation by adding a "high-line" practice to give drivers an opportunity to rubber-in the second lane. Most of the drivers said after practice Saturday that it seems to work better in Turns 1&2, but not so much in 3&4. I'm not sure if we will get a lot of side-by-side racing -- except down the stretch when someone my take a chance -- but it will help in traffic and passing slower cars.

2) Penske vs. Ganassi vs. McLaren. Yes, it will be a clash of the titans up front, as these three teams swept eight of the top 10 starting positions and then put 10 of the 11 cars between the three stables in the top 13 in final practice. 

3) Experience matters. One thing I also mentioned in my above-mentioned story is that since 2008, the race has been won all but twice by a driver with at least one of these criteria on their resume: an IndyCar championship, an Indy 500 win, or 100 career starts at the time of their TMS victory. The only two exceptions to that rule are the late Justin Wilson (2012) and Pato O'Ward (2021). Wilson, of course, fulfills the experience criteria given everything he ever drove, and O'Ward will more than likely will meet those criteria in the future. In Saturday's final practice, five-time TMS winner Scott Dixon was fastest and two-time winner Josef Newgarden was second. The guy in third? Just two-time Indy 500 winner Takuma Sato, who will definitely be a factor in a Chip Ganassi Racing machine.

Predictions!

Winner -- Felix Rosenqvist. When it comes to TMS, you can call the 31-year-old Swede "Fast Felix". Rosenqvist captured his second straight TMS pole Saturday, and nearly won the race in his first try in 2019. Oh yeah, he also finished fourth at Indianapolis last year. If he stays out of trouble career win No. 2 is in his sights. He's also motivated -- with his future still a bit up in the air, a win here would be a big help towards an extension with Arrow McLaren.

Runner-up -- Scott Dixon. Remember the criteria I mentioned above? Nobody touches Dixon. Six championships, five wins at TMS and an Indy 500 win. Since 2018, Dixon has three wins and last year finished fifth despite not having a stellar car. Another experience item? Dixon has led more laps at TMS than 16 drivers have completed in total. Dude's the king here.

Third place -- Alexander Rossi. The newly-minted Arrow McLaren driver finished fourth at St. Pete and qualified third for today's race. Rossi races well when he's happy (most drivers do) and he has a good car underneath him. Like Rosenqvist, he's motivated...or at least should be. Remember when we thought Rossi was the next big IndyCar driver? We don't talk about him all that much anymore, and I think he has a lot to prove this year.

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Enjoy the race!

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